BallparkGuys.com

Who Will Go to the Hall of Fame in 2001 and Beyond?

Larry Crino and Mike Lynch

With the results of this year's Hall of Fame voting just in, it's time for us to enjoy a vigorous Hall of Fame debate.

Who should have gone into the Hall this year? (Carlton Fisk.) He went in and so did Tony Perez. Should Perez have gone in? (Sure) Who should have gone in from previous votes? (Bert Blyleven.) Who should go in from the Veterans Committee vote? (Gil Hodges.) Should there even be a Veterans Committee? (They elected Chick Hafey.) Its work is all but done. As soon as Hodges and Bill Mazeroski are inducted, it will be done.

Should the nebulous Hall of Fame induction standard be raised or should it continue to be lowered? Does first-ballot induction really mean anything anymore? Does Hall of Fame class size-or limiting its size-mean anything anymore? What are the magic numbers for automatic induction? It's commonly believed that 500 homers, 300 wins or 3,000 hits warrant automatic induction. What about 3,000 strikeouts? What about 400 saves?

Who'll be the next reliever, and how many do they let in after him? If Jim Bunning made it, doesn't that mean that other pitchers with superior numbers, like Blyleven and Jack Morris, should go in too? Now that Orlando Cepeda and Tony Perez are in, must Jim Rice now be elected? Now that Fisk has gone in, should the two other great catchers of his era, Thurman Munson and Gary Carter, continue to be overlooked for the Hall, or should they go in?

Which two writers voted for Steve Sax for the Hall of Fame? Which writer voted for Bill Gullickson?

Why are guys like Gullickson even on the damned ballot?

There's a ton of great questions you can ask.

One question we're going to ask is: How many future Hall of Famers are playing right now?

Do you ever recall the 1971 All-Star Game at Tiger Stadium? Eighteen Hall of Famers played in that game: Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Roberto Clemente, Johnny Bench, Willie Stargell, Lou Brock, Juan Marichal, Willie McCovey, Fergie Jenkins, Rod Carew, Al Kaline, Harmon Killebrew, Carl Yastrzemski, Brooks Robinson, Frank Robinson, Luis Aparicio, Jim Palmer and Reggie Jackson. Hall of Famers Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Catfish Hunter and Billy Williams missed it. Nolan Ryan was active, but not yet a star. That's a pretty illustrious roster of Hall of Famers active at one time, don't you think?

Well, if one thinks of the group of still-active players that should and could wind up in Cooperstown, it could actually be greater than that list. There may be as many as 40 active players that could eventually go to the Hall. Add to that the recent retirees that are Cooperstown-bound: Eddie Murray, Ozzie Smith, Kirby Puckett, Dave Winfield, Wade Boggs, Paul Molitor, Dennis Eckersley, Andre Dawson, Ryne Sandberg and a couple of others. The voters had better do something to modify their traditional election practices. There are too many players nearing Hall of Fame eligibility to continue toying with limited class size and arbitrary waiting periods.

Predicting Hall of Fame-caliber greatness for any young player is somewhat ridiculous, but in the cases of the three great American League shortstops, Garciaparra, Rodriguez and Jeter, and outfielders Andruw Jones and Manny Ramirez, it's worth the risk of looking stupid in 10 years. There may be a couple of young pitchers other than Pedro Martinez, whose careers may eventually be of Hall of Fame caliber, but forecasting Hall of Fame greatness for pitchers is nearly impossible owing to the injury risk. Remember how Fernando Valenzuela and Doc Gooden looked when they were young? They looked like Hall of Famers. What do they look like now? Fernando looks like a retiree and Doc looks like a journeyman.

Take a look below at The Ballpark Guys' list of active players that should and could go to the Hall of Fame. There are about 15 that we think are locks. There are some very productive, All-Star-caliber guys who didn't make the list, but very well could have. Did we forget anyone that you think should be considered Hall of Fame bound? Do we have any locks that you don't agree with? Let us know!

Roger Clemens	LOCK Five Cy Youngs; an MVP; 3,000 Ks; should finish with 275 wins
Cal Ripken Jr.	LOCK 400 homers; 3,000 hits; The Streak; two MVPs; 1982 Rookie of the Year; stellar defensive shortstop
Mark McGwire	LOCK Will finish with over 600 homers; has 70-homer season, four straight 50-plus homer seasons, 49 as a rookie
Tony Gwynn	LOCK Eight-time batting champion; 3,000 hits; .339 lifetime average; five Gold Gloves
Rickey Henderson	LOCK Greatest leadoff man and base stealer ever; stolen base record may be unbreakable; third on all-time bases on balls list
Ken Griffey Jr.	LOCK As he turns 30, his numbers are good enough; when he's done, his numbers will be obscene
Barry Bonds	LOCK Will finish with over 500 homers, ten Gold Gloves, 1,500 RBIs, three MVPs
Greg Maddux	LOCK Regarded by many as the finest pitcher of his age; has outside shot at 300 wins
Mike Piazza	LOCK Has already posted historic numbers for a catcher; can mail in rest of career and still go to the Hall
Ivan Rodriguez	NEAR LOCK Greatest catcher since Bench, maybe ever; one MVP, will win more
Juan Gonzalez	NEAR LOCK Two MVPs; six 40-plus homer seasons; will finish with 500-600 homers; close to a lock already
Sammy Sosa	NEAR LOCK Two 60-plus homer seasons; should hit 500; late start won't hurt him at all
Larry Walker	NEAR LOCK Three straight seasons .360 or higher-first since Al Simmons; four more standard seasons, he's in
Roberto Alomar	NEAR LOCK The greatest fielding 2nd baseman ever; will finish with 3,000 hits, 15 Gold Gloves
Barry Larkin	NEAR LOCK If not for Ozzie and Cal, we would say this guy is the best shortstop of his era; 1995 N.L. MVP
Matt Williams	Must have 400-plus homers, 1,500-plus RBIs; a couple more Gold Gloves would help greatly
Mark Grace	Just over 2,000 hits; if he lasts another five average years, he'll be impossible to overlook for the Hall
Frank Thomas	Must get back to having standard Big Hurt seasons; three or four should do it; only Williams, Ruth, and Gehrig have higher OBA
Randy Johnson	Must continue current pace for minimum three more years to go; monster strikeout totals are his ticket
Rafael Palmeiro	This guy is showing no signs of slowing down; three more of these 40 HR, 100-RBI, .300 years and he may go
Harold Baines	Has quietly amassed what will be a 3,000-hit career; DH or no DH, he probably goes
Albert Belle	Biggest miscreant since Alex Johnson; one of the greatest right-handed sluggers since WWII; he'll go, we hope he waits
Edgar Martinez	A DH has to last forever and amass better numbers than an everyday player in order to go; we hope Edgar does
Tom Glavine	The most consistent winner among all lefthanders of his era, he may last long enough to get in on career numbers
Manny Ramirez	There's no one who comes to mind to compare this guy to; his numbers may wind up being comparable to Jimmie Foxx
Alex Rodriguez	Has already almost rewritten Ernie Banks' offensive record book for shortstops; one of the greatest ever already
Nomar Garciaparra	Today's ultimate throwback player; great glove; great arm; great average; great power; great intangibles
Derek Jeter	So much talent, it's almost unfair; only shortstop ever with at least 200 hits, 100 runs, 100 RBIs, 20 HR, and 90 BB in same season
Pedro Martinez	Now that he's had a season that he always showed he could, five or six more and he's better than Koufax
Tim Salmon	He's the next Al Kaline-so solid, so professional, so complete a player, it's impossible to avoid the comparison
Andruw Jones	If not for Junior, we would say this guy is best center fielder since Mays; may hit enough to someday go to the Hall
Chipper Jones	He started having big years right from the start of his career; if he stays consistent, he may someday go
Mike Mussina	Four more typical seasons and he'll be one of only three modern-day pitchers to win 200 games with a .670 winning percentage.
Jeff Bagwell	See Matt Williams; ironically, moving from the Astrodome won't boost his numbers, as his career home/road splits are identical
Craig Biggio	At 35, needs late run to become only player with 500 doubles, 500 stolen bases, and 250 home runs. Five typical seasons will do it.